Orphex Budget Pacing & Forecast

Orphex Budget Pacing & Forecast

Assess whether observed spend is aligned with the supplied period plan and produce transparent remaining-spend scenarios. A budget cap, actual spend, and a forecast are distinct quantities.

Reconcile the interval

Record period start/end, timezone, completed-day cutoff, data refresh, currency, spend source, flight/off days, authorized period budget, and unique budget ownership. Exclude partial current days unless modeled explicitly. Reconcile delayed reports before treating the gap as underdelivery. Count shared owners once; never add a parent budget and its children's governed caps. Keep currencies separate without a supplied exchange rate and date.

Calculate remaining budget = period budget − spend. For completed calendar days, linear reference spend = period budget × elapsed days / total days, and required future daily spend = remaining budget / remaining days. If the campaign has an uneven schedule, promotions, or specified daily weights, use that supplied planned curve instead and name it. At the final day, report actual variance; do not divide by zero remaining days. A negative remainder means the supplied budget is exceeded, not negative required delivery.

Forecast bounded scenarios

Show a constant observed run-rate scenario only when its assumption is useful. Prefer supplied future spend bounds or a documented forecast model with dated input. Never describe scenario bounds as statistical confidence intervals. Do not extrapolate conversions from historical average CPA as guaranteed marginal output. Note cap/billing semantics, eligibility, conversion lag for outcome claims, and the absence of flight changes. Google average daily budgets can deliver unevenly; verify the account's actual budget type before translating pacing into caps.

Report period/refresh, spend and planned reference, remaining amount, scenario arithmetic, assumptions, and a next completed-day check. Propose a change only with unambiguous entity, unit, scope, dates, and authorization; do not silently reduce budgets or move funds.

Official reference

• Google average daily budget semantics

Portable inputs and examples

• Read the input contract when mapping a new export or checking the example's scope and definitions. Copy the header-only CSV template when preparing data; equivalent supplied exports remain acceptable.
• Read the reusable business context only for business facts or constraints this task needs. Reuse user-supplied facts with their source/date; the template contains no default targets.
• Inspect the complete fictional input with its example output when learning the output and calculation boundaries. Never use fictional values for a real account.

State whether the result is complete, partial, or blocked for the requested decision. Link material findings to actual supplied rows/sources and separate observed metrics, hypotheses, and estimates. Lead with a short business conclusion, then evidence, uncertainty, and the next measurable check. A data export or installed skill does not authorize account changes.

For the supported arithmetic only, optionally run the bundled calculator with Python 3: python3 scripts/marketing_math.py pacing < calculation.json. Read its input mapping in the input contract before preparing JSON. It reads JSON, not CSV directly. If Python or the requested method is unavailable, show a reproducible alternative calculation or mark it unsupported; do not report an uncomputed result as verified.